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Published on 4/14/2020 in the Prospect News Emerging Markets Daily.

S&P lowers Ecuador

S&P said it downgraded its ratings for Ecuador to SD/SD from CCC-/C.

The downgrades follow the country’s consent solicitation to delay interest payments on various bonds until the middle of August, while it negotiates with the bondholders.

The agency lowered the issue ratings on the global 2022, 2025 and 2030 bonds with coupons due March 27 to D from CCC-. S&P also dropped the issue ratings on the global 2023, 2024, 2026, June and October 2027, 2028 and 2029 bonds to CC from CCC- because these are the remaining bonds included in the consent solicitation for a delay in interest payments.

There is no outlook on the long-term rating.

S&P removed the bonds from CreditWatch with negative implications.

Fitch lowers Eskom

Fitch Ratings said it downgraded Eskom Holdings SOC Ltd.’s long-term local-currency issuer default rating to B+ from BB- with a negative outlook. Fitch also downgraded the senior unsecured debt to B+/RR4 from BB- and the senior unsecured guaranteed debt to BB from BB+.

“Fitch will review Eskom's national ratings following the re-calibration of its national ratings scale as a result of the sovereign downgrade,” the agency said in a press release.

The downgrade and negative outlook follow Fitch’s downgrade and outlook revision of South Africa on April 3.

Fitch cuts Getin Noble Bank

Fitch Ratings said it downgraded Getin Noble Bank SA’s long-term issuer default rating to CCC+ from B-.

“The rating actions reflect Fitch’s view that the failure of Getin is a real possibility because the bank’s capacity to address its capital shortfall is highly vulnerable to the economic fallout from the coronavirus outbreak. In mid-March 2020 Getin’s total capital ratio shrank to 8.9%, about 0.4% below the legal requirement of 9.32% (including a 1.32% pillar 2 buffer for Swiss franc mortgages). The bank breached its combined buffer requirement in 2018 and since then its capital has been reduced by persistent losses,” said Fitch in a press release.

Fitch said it doesn’t provide outlooks for most ratings in the CCC category because of the potential for high volatility.

Fitch lowers IHS Netherlands

Fitch Ratings said it downgraded IHS Netherlands Holdco BV’s long-term issuer default rating and senior unsecured rating to B from B+.

The rating action follows the April 6 downgrade of Nigeria’s long-term foreign-currency IDR to B from B+.

“While the macroeconomic environment has deteriorated, Fitch’s assessment of IHS Netherlands’ market position and operating profile is unchanged,” Fitch said in a press release.

The outlook is negative.

Fitch cuts MIE Holdings to C

Fitch Ratings said it downgraded MIE Holdings Corp.’s long-term issuer default rating to C from CC and affirmed the rating of MIE’s $248.4 million 13¾% senior notes due April 2022 at C with a recovery rating of RR6.

“The downgrade follows MIE’s announcement that it was unable to pay the semi-annual interest payment of $17 million on its dollar-denominated senior notes on April 12.

The company entered a 30-day grace period to satisfy payment obligations. The grace period ends May 11.

Moody’s downgrades Suriname

Moody’s Investors Service said it downgraded the long-term issuer and senior unsecured ratings of the government of Suriname to B3 from B2 and changed the outlook to negative from stable.

“The downgrade to B3 reflects the significant deterioration in fiscal metrics as larger-than-expected fiscal deficits in 2018 and 2019 have led to a sustained rise in government debt to 75% of GDP at the end of 2019. The downgrade also reflects heightened liquidity and external risks,” Moody’s said in a press release.

The negative outlook reflects Moody’s view that risks are skewed to the downside, the agency said.

“In the absence of fiscal consolidation, persistent large fiscal deficits in 2020-21 will generate potential funding risks. Moody’s sees persistent pressures on the exchange rate, increasing the likelihood that an abrupt correction could further erode debt metrics and Suriname’s overall credit profile,” Moody’s said.

S&P cuts Tata Steel

S&P said it downgraded its long-term foreign-currency rating on Tata Steel and subsidiary ABJA Investment Co. Pte. Ltd., and the issue rating on various dollar-denominated senior unsecured notes ABJA has issued, to B+ from BB-.

The agency said it also cut its rating on Tata Steel UK Holdings Ltd. to B from B+ in line with its parent, Tata Steel.

“The downgrade mainly reflects our expectation that the improvement in Tata Steel's earnings and financial profile, on which the BB- rating was based, is unlikely to materialize in the next 12-18 months. This is mainly due to Covid-19 related disruptions and the consequent economic effects,” S&P said in a press release.

The outlook is negative.

S&P cuts Transener

S&P said it downgraded Compania de Transporte de Energia Electrica en Alta Tension Transener SA to CCC+ from B-.

The company’s cash flows will suffer in 2020, given that the first-rate adjustment for 2020 hasn't been granted while expectations for the second adjustment are slim, in the agency’s view, S&P said.

“Compounded with a higher regulatory risk, the bullet bond due August 2021 increasingly pressure the company's capital structure and liquidity amid difficult financial and business conditions in Argentina,” said S&P in a press release.

The outlook remains negative.

S&P reviews PTT PCL view to negative

S&P said it revised the outlook for PTT PCL’s foreign currency rating to stable from positive and local currency rating outlook to negative from stable, citing “unprecedented industry headwinds,” in a press release.

“The negative outlook on the LC rating reflects our view that it will be difficult for PTT to preserve its modest leverage. The stable outlook on the FC rating mirrors that on the sovereign credit rating on Thailand,” said S&P in a press release.

S&P affirmed the company’s A- local currency rating and BBB+ foreign currency rating.

Fitch revises Petronas view to negative

Fitch Ratings said it revised the outlook on Petroliam Nasional Bhd.’s (Petronas) to negative from stable and affirmed the long-term foreign- and local-currency issuer default ratings at A-. At the same time, Fitch affirmed the company’s foreign-currency senior unsecured rating and the rating on debt issued by subsidiary Petronas Capital Ltd. and guaranteed by Petronas at A-.

The rating actions follow Fitch’s revision of the outlook on Malaysia to negative from stable on April 9.

S&P changes PTT Chemical view to negative

S&P said it changed the outlook on PTT Global Chemical PCL to negative from stable and affirmed the BBB+ ratings on the company and its $1 billion of senior unsecured notes sold by the company and its subsidiary GC Treasury Center Co. Ltd.

Global Chemical is a subsidiary of PTT PCL. S&P revised PTT’s local currency rating to negative.

“Our negative outlook on GC mirrors that on the local currency rating on PTT. It reflects our view that low hydrocarbon prices stemming from dampened demand will hurt the earnings of PTT and its subsidiaries. Lower earnings will weigh on PTT's consolidated balance sheet in 2020-2022 unless the group defers uncommitted capital expenditure (capex) to keep its debt-to-EBITDA ratio below 2x throughout the period,” said S&P in a press release.

S&P revises PTT Exploration view to negative

S&P said it revised the outlook for PTT Exploration & Production PCL’s local currency rating to negative from stable and to stable from positive for the foreign currency rating outlook.

The outlooks reflect the outlooks of its parent PTT PCL, which were revised after S&P revised the outlooks for Thailand, S&P said.

S&P affirmed PPT Exploration’s A- local currency rating and BBB+ foreign currency rating.

Fitch revises TBC Leasing view to negative

Fitch Ratings said it revised JSC TBC Leasing’s outlook to negative from stable while affirming the company’s long-term issuer default rating at BB-.

The outlook change follows the recent revision of the outlook on the company’s parent TBC Bank to negative from stable, Fitch said.

Fitch said it believes the economic fallout from the coronavirus outbreak represents a medium-term risk to TBC Bank’s ratings and to the bank’s ability to help if needed.

S&P revises Thai Oil view to negative

S&P said it revised the outlook on the local currency rating of Thai Oil PCL to negative from stable and the outlook on the foreign currency rating to stable from positive.

Thai Oil is a subsidiary of PTT PCL. The change in outlooks reflects the changes S&P made to PTT’s outlooks.

S&P affirmed the BBB+ ratings on Thai Oil and its senior unsecured notes.

S&P revises Wan Hai Lines view to negative

S&P said it revised the outlook for Wan Hai Lines Ltd. to negative from stable.

“Substantial declines in trading volume and freight rates could materially pressure Wan Hai’s revenue in 2020. In our view, disruption to people flows and supply chains amid the Covid-19 outbreak could bring a slump in global transportation demand. The strict containment measures imposed by governments around the world could lead to significantly weaker global economic growth and end demand,” the agency said in a press release.

S&P affirmed the company’s BB+ rating.

Moody’s reviews JSW Steel for trim

Moody’s Investors Service said it placed under review for downgrade JSW Steel Ltd.’s Ba2 corporate family rating and the Ba2 senior unsecured rating.

The agency revised the outlook to ratings under review from stable.

“The review for downgrade reflects our expectation that weak steel demand will strain JSW’s credit profile, at least through the fiscal year ending March 2021,” said Kaustubh Chaubal, a Moody’s vice president and senior credit officer, in a press release. “In fact, there is a distinct possibility JSW will remain in breach of our downgrade triggers for its Ba2 CFR.”

S&P revises two Thai banks view to stable

S&P said it revised the outlook on Bangkok Bank PCL and Bank of Ayudhya PCL to stable from positive following the sovereign action.

On Monday, S&P revised the outlook for Thailand to stable from positive.

S&P also affirmed the banks’ BBB+ ratings.

Moody's rates Santander Mexico notes A3

Moody's Investors Service said it assigned an A3 long-term foreign currency senior unsecured debt rating to Banco Santander Mexico, SA, Institucion de Banca Multiple, Grupo Financiero Santander Mexico's proposed senior 144A/Reg S notes.

The notes will be denominated in dollars.

“The A3 debt rating incorporates Santander Mexico's good and stable asset quality, a robust profitability and improving capitalization. Non-performing loans declined to 2.3% by year-end 2019, a level comparable to the system's, thanks to a decline in delinquencies in the commercial loan book, which represents half of the bank's total credit portfolio,” the agency said in a press release.

The outlook is negative.

Fitch rates Santander Mexico notes BBB+

Fitch Ratings said it assigned Banco Santander Mexico, SA Institucion de Banca Multiple (SAN Mexico)'s proposed dollar-denominated senior unsecured notes an expected BBB+ rating. The notes for an amount and maturity date have yet to be determined.

“The rating of the senior global debt is at the same level as SAN Mexico's long-term issuer default rating of BBB+/negative, as the likelihood of default of the notes is the same as the one of SAN Mexico,” said Fitch in a press release.

Fitch drops Arcos Dorados to BB

Fitch Ratings said it downgraded Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc.'s long-term foreign-currency issuer default rating and senior unsecured notes to BB from BB+. The agency revised the outlook to negative from stable.

“Fitch expects the performance of the company to be affected by disruption from the coronavirus pandemic due to the temporary closures of restaurants in several countries,” the agency said in a press release.

Fitch said it estimates the company closed 38% of its restaurants temporarily, only drive-through service and delivery are being offered in another 38% of Arcos stores, and full-service operation (although with restricted hours in some locations) continues in only 24% of its stores.

“Fitch's downgrade incorporates the expectation that restrictions will continue to affect dine-in services through May 2020,” the agency said.

S&P drops NMC Health to D

S&P said it downgraded NMC Health plc to D from CCC- on the appointment of an administrator.

The company missed payments on its bank loans and lenders filed in court to have an administrator appointed, the agency said.

“We also believe that the company will likely not pay interest on its sukuk and convertible loan in the coming months. In addition, its lenders have moved to courts and an administrator has been appointed who will take charge of the company to oversee restructuring or liquidation. We view this as formalization of default,” said the agency in a press release.

Fitch acts on Polish banks

Fitch Ratings said it acted on seven Polish banking groups reflecting the economic impact of the coronavirus outbreak in Europe.

“The ultimate implications of the pandemic for banks’ credit profiles are unclear, but Fitch considers the risks to be skewed to the downside,” the agency said in a press release.

The actions on banks’ long-term issuer default ratings are as follows:

Long-term IDR affirmed, outlook revised to negative from stable:

Bank Pekao SA (BBB+/negative),

Santander Bank Polska SA (BBB+/negative),

Alior Bank SA (BB/Negative),

Bank Ochrony Srodowiska SA (BB-/negative).

Long-term IDR affirmed, outlook remains stable:

mBank (BBB-/stable), off rating watch positive,

Bank Millennium (BBB-/stable).

Long-term IDR maintained on rating watch negative:

ING Bank Slaski SA (A+/RWN).


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