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Published on 2/20/2015 in the Prospect News Emerging Markets Daily.

Greece, Ukraine remain on radar screens; spreads narrow; Emirates, Isbank seek issuance

By Christine Van Dusen

Atlanta, Feb. 20 – Spreads tightened and two issuers – Dubai’s Emirates and Turkey’s Turkiye Is Bankasi AS (Isbank) – planned new deals on Friday as the ceasefire in Ukraine remained “shaky” at best and news of Greece’s extension made little impact.

“Despite the withdrawal of Ukrainian government troops from Debaltseve, the ceasefire remains extremely shaky,” a London-based analyst said. “Although fighting in that town appears to be dying down, there have been headlines about fighting in the village of Shyrokine, near the coastal town of Mariupo, and shelling in Donetsk.”

Still, the withdrawal from Debaltseve was seen as a positive, and a sign that a ceasefire could eventually stick, he said.

“But we continue to believe constitution reforms that result in a long-lasting peace will prove difficult,” he said.

After widening about 10 basis points on Thursday, credit default swaps spreads for Russia were 1 bp tighter on Friday morning, he said.

Turkey’s credit default swaps spreads on Friday retained the previous day’s tightening, he said.

“Attention now turns to next week’s rates decision in the country, where consensus is calling for a 50 bps rate cut by the Central Bank,” he said. “That reflects falling inflation expectations and immense political pressure.”

Bonds from Central and emerging Europe were slightly tighter by Friday on the move in rates, he said.

“Clearly plenty of focus on Greece,” he said.

After weeks of negotiation and a rejection from Germany, European leaders agreed to extend Greece’s bailout by four months. Now Greece has until the end of the day on Monday to outline fiscal reforms. If those reforms are rejected by creditors, the finance ministers will need to meet and negotiate again.

Middle East in focus

From the Middle East, some spreads opened tighter by Friday on the rates move and the rally in oil prices on Thursday, a trader said.

“More mixed performance in long-end bonds,” he said. “The high-beta, high-yield names were active as well.”

Dar al Arkan Holdings’ 2016s are almost 80 bps tighter on the week, he said, and Etisalat’s 2026 euro bonds continued to trade well, tightening 20 bps on the month.

Emirates to issue sukuk

Emirates is planning to issue $1 billion of Islamic bonds, a market source said.

The proceeds will be used to pay for delivery of superjumbo jets.

Other details were not immediately available on Friday.

Emirates is an airline based in Dubai.

Isbank plans notes

Isbank is looking to issue up to $5 billion of notes, a market source said.

Other details were not immediately available on Friday.

Isbank is an Istanbul-based lender.


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