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Published on 2/26/2016 in the Prospect News Emerging Markets Daily.

Fitch downgrades Azerbaijan

Fitch Ratings said it downgraded Azerbaijan's long-term foreign and local currency issuer default ratings to BB+ from BBB-.

The outlooks are negative.

The issue rating on Azerbaijan's senior unsecured foreign currency bond was also downgraded to BB+ from BBB-. The country ceiling was revised to BB+ from BBB- and the short-term foreign-currency issuer default rating was downgraded to B from F3.

Low oil prices have caused a significant deterioration in the fiscal position, Fitch said. The consolidated general government budget deficit was 5.3% of GDP in 2015 and Fitch expects deficits of 12.5% of GDP in 2016 and 7.5% of GDP in 2017. Receipts from oil and gas, which averaged more than 50% of consolidated budget revenues over the past five years, fell by an estimated 40% in 2015 and Fitch expects them to drop by a further 30% in 2016. At an oil price of USD 25/b, the revised draft 2016 budget projects a consolidated deficit of 15% of GDP.


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