Fitch moves Azerbaijan view to positive

Fitch Ratings said it revised the outlook on Azerbaijan's long-term foreign-currency issuer default rating to positive from stable and affirmed the IDR at BB+.

“High oil and gas prices are further strengthening the sovereign balance sheet. Fitch forecasts the current account surplus will increase 12.1pp in 2022 to 27.3% of GDP, and narrow to 19.3% in 2023 and 12.1% in 2024 (partly reflecting a drop in the oil price to average $85/b in 2023 and $65/b in 2024) but still the highest in the BB peer group,” the agency said in a press release.

Fitch said it estimates the country’s general government surplus will climb to 10.6% of GDP in 2022, from 4.2% in 2021, pushed by energy prices but also reflecting strong non-oil receipts and moderate expenditure.

The agency said it also projects Azerbaijan’s general government debt to drop to 6.9% of GDP at the end-2024, from 16.2% at the end-2021.

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