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Published on 2/3/2016 in the Prospect News Emerging Markets Daily.

Poland maintains reference rate at 1½%, keeps other rates unchanged

By Marisa Wong

Morgantown, W.Va., Feb. 3 – National Bank of Poland’s Monetary Policy Council voted to keep the reference rate at 1½%, the Lombard rate at 2½%, the deposit rate at ½% and the rediscount rate at 1¾% at its meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday, according to a bank news release.

The bank reported that a preliminary estimate of national accounts for 2015 suggests that GDP growth likely increased in the fourth quarter for Poland.

Domestic demand, fueled by stable consumption growth and rising investment, continues to be the key driver of economic growth, the council said. Favorable labor market conditions, positive consumer sentiment, sound financial standing of enterprises and high capacity utilization also support growth.

Currently, there are no inflationary pressures in the economy, because the output gap remains negative and wage growth is only moderate. Annual growth in consumer and producer prices remains negative, the council said.

Persisting deflation is mainly due to the strong fall in global energy commodity prices in recent quarters. Inflation expectations are still very low. However, the persisting deflation has not yet adversely affected decisions of economic agents, the bank noted.

The council said it believes CPI inflation will remain negative in the coming months due to the depressed prices of global energy commodities.

At the same time, a gradual increase in core inflation is expected and will be supported by stable economic growth amid improving economic activity in the euro area and favorable labor market conditions, the council said.

As a result, the council decided to keep the rates unchanged.


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