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Published on 2/9/2018 in the Prospect News Bank Loan Daily, Prospect News Convertibles Daily, Prospect News Distressed Debt Daily and Prospect News High Yield Daily.

Moody’s global speculative-grade default rate ends January at 2.8%

By Caroline Salls

Pittsburgh, Feb. 9 – Moody’s Investors Service’s global speculative-grade default rate closed at 2.8% for the trailing 12-month period ended Jan. 31, down from 2.9% at the end of 2017 and 4.6% a year ago, the rating agency said in its latest global default report.

Moody’s said it expects the default rate to reach 1.7% by the end of 2018, well below its long-term average of 4.2% since 1983, and the comparable rate to end the year at 2.2% in the United States and 1% in Europe.

“The new year opened with seven defaults, with three from the oil and gas sector,” Moody’s Sharon Ou said in the report.

“Nevertheless, we expect energy company defaults to continue to slow in the year ahead, with the sector’s default rate expected to fall to 2% in the U.S. by next January, as recovery from the oil price slump further stabilizes.”

Ou said five of January’s seven defaults were by U.S. issuers.

Oil refiner Philadelphia Energy, which filed for bankruptcy with more than $540 million of debt, was the month’s largest default. In Europe, U.K. health and social care services company Elli Investments Ltd. was the sole defaulter.

By this time next year, Moody’s said it expects the oil and gas sector to rank 11th among its 35 industry groupings in terms of default rates. In the United States, the rating agency expects media: advertising, printing and publishing to be the most troubled sector in the coming 12 months, followed by durable consumer goods and retail, while in Europe, Moody’s said the cargo transportation sector will carry the highest risk of default, followed by media: advertising, printing and publishing and retail.

Meanwhile, in the leveraged loan market, two defaults were recorded in January, with loan defaulter Philadelphia Energy Solutions R&M LLC sending the issuer-weighted U.S. loan default rate to 2.2% in January, against 2.3% in December.


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