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Published on 4/30/2019 in the Prospect News Emerging Markets Daily.

Fitch lowers Geo Energy view to negative

Fitch Ratings said it revised the outlook on Geo Energy Resources Ltd. to negative from stable and affirmed the long-term issuer default rating at B.

Fitch also said it affirmed Geo Coal International Pte. Ltd.'s $300 million 8% senior unsecured guaranteed notes due 2022 at B with recovery rating of RR4.

The outlook revision reflects Geo's gradually deteriorating operating profile with declining reserves and reserve life in the absence of acquisitions, Fitch said.

Geo relies on inorganic growth to improve reserves given the nature of its existing mines, the agency noted.

Fitch said it believes Geo's credit metrics will remain adequate for its rating with a slight improvement over the next two years based on a forecast for modestly higher production volume.

Fitch lowers Banco Pine

Fitch Ratings said it downgraded Banco Pine SA's viability rating to B from B+' and long-term foreign- and local-currency issuer default ratings to B from B+ with a negative outlook.

Pine's long-term national rating also was downgraded to BBB-(bra) from BBB+(bra) and the short-term national rating to F3(bra) from F2(bra).

The long-term outlook is negative.

The downgrades reflect an assessment of the bank's challenges in implementing its new business model, along with operating losses, Fitch said.

The downgrades also consider the still uncertain operating environment and the negative impact on the bank's former credit portfolio, the agency said.

Moody's lifts HEP view to positive

Moody's Investors Service said it changed the outlook on Hrvatska Elektroprivreda dd (HEP) to positive from stable.

Moody's also said it affirmed HEP's long-term corporate family rating at Ba2, probability of default rating at Ba2-PD and senior unsecured debt rating at Ba2.

The outlook revision follows a similar outlook revision on the government of Croatia to positive from stable.

The positive outlook reflects the fact that HEP's ratings are likely to be upgraded if Croatia's ratings are upgraded, the agency said.

Given its 100% ownership by the government and HEP's strategic importance to the country, its rating would normally incorporate an uplift from its standalone credit quality expressed as a baseline credit assessment of Ba2, Moody's said.

This reflects the strong likelihood of extraordinary support from the government in case of financial distress, the agency said.

The company derives most of its earnings from Croatia, so it is exposed to domestic regulatory oversight and local economic conditions, Moody's added.

Moody's lifts Longfor view to positive

Moody's Investors Service said it revised the outlook on Longfor Group Holdings Ltd. to positive from stable.

Moody's also said it affirmed Longfor's Baa3 issuer and senior unsecured ratings.

The outlook revision reflects an expectation that the improvement in the company's financial metrics will be sustained at levels that are strong when compared with its Baa3-rated Chinese property peers over the next 12- to 18-months, the agency said.

Longfor will continue to grow its investment property portfolio, which will further strengthen the company's cash flow stability and debt-servicing abilities, Moody's said.

The company's financial strength is a result of its balanced approach towards business growth, cash flow stability and disciplined financial management, the agency said.

The company has prudent sales growth and land bank expansion targets, with an aim to control its debt growth and risks, Moody's said.

It also has carefully scaled its construction progress according to market demand, the agency said.

Moody's lifts Zagreb, Zagrebacki views to positive

Moody's Investors Service said it changed the outlook of the city of Zagreb and its 100%-owned utility company, Zagrebacki Holding DOO, to positive from stable.

Moody's also said it affirmed the Ba2 long-term issuer ratings of both entities.

The ratings reflect the improvement in the operating environment for Croatian sub-sovereigns, the agency said.

The ratings also consider the city's good budgetary management and sound financial fundamentals, which have ensured a high self-funding capacity and a low direct debt burden, Moody's said.

Moody's noted a significant improvement in the city's operating performance with gross operating balance at 11% of operating revenue in 2018, compared with 3% in 2017.

The agency said it expects the city will post a good financial performance in 2019 through 2020, thanks to its expanding revenue base and prudent appetite for capital expenditure and infrastructure funding opportunities.

S&P upgrades Kapitalbank

S&P said it raises the ratings on Kapitalbank to B-/B from CCC+/C.

Kapitalbank's regulatory capital adequacy ratio has gradually increased over the past 12 months, S&P said.

Increased regulatory capital buffers – albeit just barely above the minimum requirement – and the potential extraordinary government support somewhat reduce Kapitalbank's dependence on favorable business, financial and economic conditions to meet its financial commitments, the agency said.

The bank's sound liquidity cushion and deposit base will likely remain one of the key rating strengths over the next 12 months, S&P said.

The stable outlook reflects a view that Kapitalbank will likely continue to comply with regulatory capital requirements and maintain stable funding base over the next 12 months, while remaining as a moderately systemically important financial institution in Uzbekistan, S&P said.

S&P lifts Nuevo Leon

S&P said it raised the national scale rating on the Mexican state of Nuevo Leon to mxA from mxA-.

The outlook is stable.

Nuevo Leon's disciplined financial policies support fiscal sustainability and that is expected to continue over the next two years, S&P said.

The agency said it expects the state to post narrow deficits after capital expenditure, coupled with an overall stability of its liquidity position and debt burden over 2019 to 2021.

The stable outlook reflects an expectation that in the next two years, Nuevo Leon will contain the pressure on its operating expenditure and post small operating surpluses and deficits after capital expenditure slightly lower than 5% of its total revenue, S&P said.

S&P upgrades two Panama companies

S&P said it is raising the ratings on Autoridad del Canal de Panama to A from A-, along with Aeropuerto Internacional de Tocumen SA's senior debt to BBB+ from BBB.

A stable outlook was assigned to both companies.

The upgrades reflect a similar recent upgrade on the sovereign ratings of Panama.

The upgrades are due to many years of rapid GDP growth, which were above the pace of its rating peers, S&P said.

The lifted ratings also consider the country's economic diversification, which boosted per capita income and helped strengthen the resilience of Panama's small, open economy, S&P said.

S&P upgrades Philippines

S&P said it raised a long-term sovereign credit rating on the Philippines to BBB+.

The agency also said it affirmed the A-2 short-term credit rating on the Philippines.

The Philippines has above-average economic growth, healthy external position and sustainable public finances, S&P said.

These strengths will underpin the sovereign's improved creditworthiness, the agency said.

The stable outlook reflects a view that the Philippines economy will maintain its strong momentum over the medium term, along with contained fiscal deficits and stable public indebtedness, S&P said.

Fitch puts Svyaz-Bank on positive watch

Fitch Ratings said it placed PJSC JSCB Svyaz-Bank's long-term issuer default rating of BB- on Rating Watch positive.

The agency also said it affirmed the bank's short-term issuer default rating at B and viability rating at B-.

The positive watch reflects the announced plans to transfer the bank from VEB.RF, a state-owned development bank, to Promsvyazbank, a state-owned universal bank primarily responsible for servicing state defense orders and other large state contracts, Fitch explained.

The agency said it understands that after the transfer, Svyaz-Bank could be merged with or become a core subsidiary of Promsvyazbank, given potential synergies between the banks' businesses.

Fitch said it expects to resolve the positive watch once the transfer is completed and there is more clarity about Promsvyazbank's strategy with Svyaz-Bank.

S&P puts Ukrzaliznytsia on watch

S&P said it placed the CCC+ rating on Ukrainian Railway PJSC (Ukrzaliznytsia) and its eurobonds on CreditWatch with negative implications.

The CreditWatch placement indicates that the agency could lower the rating on Ukrzaliznytsia to CCC if the company does not arrange a refinancing or repayment of its upcoming maturities, the agency said.

The CreditWatch placement is due to the fact that Ukrzaliznytsia has not yet arranged the refinancing of its upcoming maturities, leading to a weak liquidity assessment.

The company has a $500 million outstanding bond that matures in several installments, the agency said. It made the first $150 million payment, which was due in March 2019. A second $150 million installment is due in September 2019, followed by four $50 million installments in March and September of 2020 and 2021, S&P said.

The company is working on various refinancing options, the agency said, but has not yet secured refinancing for all of these maturities.

Fitch rates BRF notes AA+(bra)

Fitch Ratings said it assigned a long-term national scale rating of AA+(bra) to BRF SA's proposed debenture issuance.

The debentures will be unsecured in the amount of up to R$750 million with a maturity of up to seven years.

The proceeds will be used to refinance existing debt and for general corporate purposes, Fitch said.

The ratings consider an expectation that BRF will de-leverage, given increased profitability and asset sales, the agency said.

The company's de-leveraging trajectory was slower than initially anticipated because of poor cash flow generation due to the shutdown of the Russian pork market to Brazilian exporters, Fitch said, and the closing of the E.U. market to BRF in the middle of the year.

These issues resulted in a flood of lower-value-added products being redirected to the Brazilian market, which prevented the company from raising prices to offset the 30% increase in grain prices, the agency explained.

The company's Brazilian operations also were hindered by a truckers' strike, Fitch noted.

Fitch said it expects BRF's net leverage to improve to 4.5x during 2019, from 6.3x in 2018 due to increased EBITDA and proceeds from asset sales.

S&P rates MGM China notes BB-

S&P said it assigned a BB- issuer credit rating to MGM China Holdings Ltd.

The agency also said it assigned a BB- rating to MGM China's proposed aggregate $1.25 billion unsecured notes due 2024 and 2026.

S&P also affirmed the existing ratings on MGM Resorts and its other subsidiaries, including the BB- issuer credit ratings.

The outlook is stable.

MGM China, a subsidiary of MGM Resorts International, plans to issue $1.25 billion of unsecured notes to repay a portion of its outstanding secured debt, S&P said.

MGM's leverage is expected to improve to the mid- to high-4x range through 2019 as a result of recently completed acquisitions and ongoing investments in the business, the agency said.

Although the refinancing transaction will increase MGM China's financial flexibility by improving its maturity profile and broadening its capital markets access, it will not materially alter the forecast for credit measures over the next few years given it is primarily a debt-for-debt refinancing, Moody's said.

Moody's rates MGM China notes Ba3

Moody's Investors Service said it assigned a Ba3 rating to the proposed senior unsecured notes to be issued by MGM China Holdings Ltd., a 55.95% owned discretely financed publicly traded subsidiary of MGM Resorts International.

MGM China owns and operates two resort casinos in Macau, China, that account for about 20% of MGM Resorts consolidated EBITDA, Moody's explained.

The agency also affirmed MGM Resorts' Ba3 corporate family rating, Ba3-PD probability of default rating, Ba3 senior unsecured ratings and speculative grade liquidity rating of SGL-1

The outlook is positive.

The ratings reflect a view that credit metrics will improve over the next 12- to 18-months due to higher earnings contributions from the ramp up of MGM Cotai and modest growth at domestic properties, the agency said.

The company benefits from its large scale, diversified presence on the Las Vegas Strip across multiple customer segments, solid position within several regional markets and presence in the large Macau market with favorable long-term prospects, Moody's said.

The ratings are constrained by its concentration in Las Vegas, exposure to the volatile Macau gaming market and the ramp-up risk associated with recent resort developments, the agency said.


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