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Published on 7/7/2004 in the Prospect News Emerging Markets Daily.

Fitch ups Estonia, others

Fitch Ratings said it upgraded the long-term foreign currency ratings of Estonia to A from A-, Latvia to A- from BBB+, Lithuania to A- from BBB+ and Slovenia to AA- from A+, in reflection of the increasing certainty and proximity of their adoption of the euro.

The outlook is positive.

"The announcement on June 28 of Estonia, Lithuania and Slovenia's participation in the ERM II, which is an important milestone on the road to the euro, underlines their commitment to its early adoption," said Edward Parker, director in the Fitch Sovereigns Group. "Although Latvia does not intend to join the ERM II until early 2005, in Fitch's view it has announced a clear and credible policy and timetable. Indeed, the agency would not be surprised, if Latvia adopted the euro before its official target date of the beginning of 2008."

Fitch said it regards the convergence programs of the Baltic states and Slovenia as credible and it expects them to be the first of the new member states to adopt the euro, in early 2007, providing the rationale for Wednesday's rating actions.

Fitch said it expects the advent of the euro to provide the greatest gains to creditworthiness in the Baltic states of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, owing to their relatively strong fiscal and weak external positions.


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