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Published on 7/31/2006 in the Prospect News Emerging Markets Daily.

S&P: Lithuania may be pressured

Standard & Poor's said in a report that without concerted policy and fiscal reforms, the aging Lithuanian population will lead to intense pressure on the public finances and the ratings on Lithuania (A/stable/A-1).

"Absent further reforms, total age-related public expenditures in Lithuania will rise to 15.4% of GDP in 2050, up from 11.0% in 2005," said S&P credit analyst Eileen Zhang.

"In this scenario, general government deficits and net debt would rise steadily to reach 12% and 151% of GDP, respectively, by 2050."

The agency said that a fiscal deterioration of that magnitude would not be compatible with the current A long-term sovereign rating on Lithuania.


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