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Published on 3/11/2016 in the Prospect News Emerging Markets Daily.

Morning Commentary: Investors digest ECB news; oil prices back in spotlight; Panama, Koc trade

By Christine Van Dusen

Atlanta, March 11 – Emerging markets investors were bracing for “high volatility” on Friday following the European Central Bank’s Thursday announcement of additional stimulus, as oil prices once again took center stage.

“We expect a high volatility to persist in the bond market today as investors will be analyzing yesterday’s ECB move and Mario Draghi’s comments,” according to a report from Schildershoven Finance BV.

Now that the ECB news is out there, “oil prices might be in the spotlight once more,” a London-based strategist said. “While WTI and Brent crude had a remarkable rally since the lows in January and February, the stabilizing factor of oil production freezes is put into question.”

Several members of OPEC “initially hinted at meetings starting later in March, subsequent to the tentative agreement by Qatar, Russia, Saudi Arabia and Venezuela on Feb. 16,” he said. “Russia’s energy minister, however, stated on Wednesday that no time or date had been set so far. Moreover, a meeting between Latin American oil exporters scheduled to start today was postponed.”

In trading, the new issue of notes from Panama – 3 7/8% notes due 2028 that priced this week at 99.015 to yield 3.979%, or Treasuries plus 205 bps – moved to 99 bid, 99.20 offered on Friday.

Credit Suisse and Morgan Stanley were the bookrunners for the Securities and Exchange Commission-registered deal.

The proceeds will be used for general governmental purposes, including the refinancing of debt.

And Turkey-based Koc Holding AS' new 5¼% notes due 2023 traded on Friday at 99.40 bid, 99.80 offered after pricing this week at 99.135 to yield 5.4%, a trader said.

The notes were talked at a yield of 5½% to 5 5/8%.

BNP Paribas, Citigroup, HSBC and JPMorgan were the bookrunners for the Rule 144A and Regulation S deal.


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