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Published on 7/13/2004 in the Prospect News Emerging Markets Daily.

Moody's: Kazakhstan positive

Moody's Investors Service said it changed its outlooks to positive from stable on Kazakhstan's Baa3 country ceiling for foreign-currency bonds and the Ba1 country ceiling for foreign-currency bank deposits. The outlook change also applies to the government's Baa3-rated foreign currency and Baa1-rated local currency bonds.

Moody's noted that Kazakhstan continues to experience unusually strong economic growth. Performance on the current account, federal budget, and public-sector debt management is solid.

The rating agency believes that the republic's banking sector is healthy, is supervised tightly by the country's central bank, and is playing an increasingly active role in supplying credits to small- and medium-size enterprises. Foreign direct investment in the commodity exporting sector remains strong and has helped spark consumer demand. The trend is also helping to develop retail trade and the service sector.

Moody's said that, although a fall in oil prices would negatively affect macroeconomic and fiscal data, any potential downturn would likely be checked by the scope for volume increases in the production and export of oil over the medium to long term.

The existence of the National Fund, which invests "excess oil earnings" abroad, and a tight fiscal policy further reinforce the positive outlook scenario, the agency said.


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