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Published on 8/31/2018 in the Prospect News Emerging Markets Daily.

Morning Commentary: Argentina struggles to stabilize; Oman, Aldar eye new bond issues

By Rebecca Melvin

New York, Aug. 31 – Market players were watching Argentina for signs of stability early Friday as the sovereign’s bonds and currency continued to slip lower following a dramatic sell-off starting Wednesday when president Mauricio Macri announced he is asking the International Monetary Fund to speed up the release of its $50 billion funding package for the country.

The pace of selling has slowed, but the peso and bonds continued to drift lower in a thinly traded market ahead of the long holiday weekend in the United States in observance of Labor Day.

The Argentine peso was last 39.35 to the U.S. dollar, which is down from a close of 38.53 on Thursday, when the currency fell almost 12%. The cost of credit default swaps was up to 759 basis points, a surge of 102 bps on Thursday. A second source put the CDS level at 750 bps.

Argentina’s 7 1/8% century bonds due 2117 traded down again on Friday by more than a point to 67.50 bid, 68.20 offered. That was down from 74.10 a week ago and from 80 a month ago.

The continuing downdraft comes despite Argentina’s central bank’s drastic action on Thursday to raise interest rates 15% to 60%, making it the highest rate among emerging market countries. The bank last raised rates in July to 45% from 40%.

Meanwhile, the Turkish lira, which has been the hardest hit emerging market currency this year, fell as much as 5% against the dollar on Thursday.

Despite the fact that the emerging markets debt market was weighed down on Friday by worries about Argentina, the new issue market has rekindled in the Middle East and Africa region with new mandates for several Gulf Cooperation Council entities.

The prospective issuers include Oman, which has reportedly mandated banks for a new issue of U.S. dollar-denominated bonds, and the United Arab Emirates' Aldar Properties PJSC, which has selected banks for a planned sukuk, or Islamic bond, to be issued subject to market conditions, according to a market source on Friday.

According to reports, Oman has selected Citigroup, Standard Chartered Bank, Credit Agricole, First Abu Dhabi Bank, Emirates NBD and ABC BSC to syndicate its deal.

Earlier this week Abu Dhabi Islamic Bank and Al Hilal Bank were said to be shopping deals for pricing within the next several weeks.


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