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Published on 11/27/2017 in the Prospect News Emerging Markets Daily.

Morning Commentary: South Africa notes volatile after downgrade; Alibaba to price dollar notes

By Rebecca Melvin

New York, Nov. 27 – The Republic of South Africa’s debt curve opened sharply lower on Monday but bounced back to end the session in London higher despite a downgrade by S&P Global Ratings that pushes the debt further into junk territory.

South Africa 5.65% notes due 2047, which priced in September, were up 1.2 points at 98.15 bid, 98.70 offered, after trading as low as 96 intraday.

The $1.5 billion of 30-year notes saw demand after S&P’s action was not followed up by a similar move by Moody’s Investors Service, a market source said.

S&P said it lowered South Africa’s long-term foreign currency sovereign credit rating to BB from BB+. It affirmed the B rating on its short-term foreign currency sovereign credit, and said the outlook is stable.

S&P said it also lowered the long-term South Africa national scale rating to zaAA+ from zaAAA and affirmed the short-term national scale rating at zaA-1+.

“The downgrade reflects our opinion of further deterioration of South Africa's economic outlook and its public finances.

“In our view, economic decisions in recent years have largely focused on the distribution – rather than the growth of – national income. As a consequence, South Africa's economy has stagnated and external competitiveness has eroded,” S&P said in a news release.

Elsewhere investors eyed the announcement of three dollar-denominated tranches to be priced by Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. as early as Tuesday.

The Hangzhou, China-based cyber commerce company is holding investor calls on Monday and Tuesday regarding three tranches of Securities and Exchange Commission-registered dollar notes.

The deals are being sold via joint bookrunners Morgan Stanley, Citigroup, Credit Suisse, Goldman Sachs (Asia) LLC and JPMorgan. Co-managers are ANZ, BNP Paribas, DBS Bank Ltd. HSBC and ING.


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