Merrill Lynch's Cancer Handbook designed to help evaluate oncology investment opportunities

By Lisa Kerner

Erie, Pa., May 23 - Merrill Lynch said its Cancer Handbook is intended to help portfolio manager navigate the competitive landscape of oncology drugs by providing a comprehensive look at the most common cancers in the United States.

The handbook uses the Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results database to break down drug-treated, late-stage, first-, second-, third-line and adjuvant cancer patients for 16 cancers.

Of the 15 cancers surveyed, 46 unique drugs were identified in phase 3 development or in phase 3 trials to expand current indications.

The worldwide cancer market will grow to $50 billion to $60 billion and the number of new cancer patients will reach 1.5 million by 2010.

Merrill Lynch analyst Eric Ende said biotech companies could capture 50% of the increase based on the number of drugs in late-stage development as well as current pricing.

Even with more screening, the number of late-stage patients is likely to rise, increasing the need for late-stage treatments.

U.S. and non-U.S. revenues for 2005 were almost equal for 20 of the top 30 oncology drugs, at roughly $12.5 billion.

Merrill said it believes the collective ex-U.S. oncology market is underestimated and overlooked

While overall survival is the gold standard for cancer drugs, progression-free survival and response rate serve as meaningful endpoints.

Merrill Lynch is a financial management and advisory company based in New York.

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